³Ô¹ÏÍø

June 30, 2025

Is Canada Day getting warmer? That’s a question three student researchers from ³Ô¹ÏÍø set out to answer by analyzing 75 years of temperature data in 14 capital cities across Canada, using July 1 as a reference point. Their shows a clear warming trend, with average temperature increases between 0.9 and 3.5 degrees Celsius since 1949.

“While most people across the country, if asked, would almost certainly be happy to learn the first long weekend of the summer is becoming warmer, the reality is that higher average temperatures present wide-ranging economic, environmental and health risks for Canadians,” reads the by Miyuki Niyungeko, Dara Bird and Hiral Bhavsar, students in ³Ô¹ÏÍø’s Geography and Environmental Studies program.

During the past 75 years, Regina, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Halifax saw increases of between 3.1 and 3.5 degrees Celsius, well over the threshold set by the , which saw countries agree to hold temperatures to two degrees over pre-industrial levels.

“The presence of oceans has a moderating effect on temperatures, especially in the early summer,” says Niyungeko. “So the Prairie provinces, far from the oceans, experience much more summertime warming than the Maritimes and Victoria.”

Bird notes that the lowest increases were in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

“Places like Quebec City and Fredericton, where proximity to oceans has a moderating effect on the climate, are where the annual temperature ranges are smaller,” says Bird. “The Gulf of St. Lawrence and St. John’s are affected by cold Arctic water. Halifax experiences warmer currents moving up the east coast, so it’s an exception from other Maritime cities, with greater warming.”

All three students agree that climate change deserves more attention on the political agenda, with issues such as wildfires, poor air quality and extreme heatwaves affecting cities across Canada.

“Canada has committed to work with the international community to implement the restrictions set by the Paris Agreement,” says Bhavsar. “The 75-year temperature increases in the Prairies and Halifax are well above that limit.”

The students bonded right away over their passion for the Canada Day project, says ³Ô¹ÏÍø’s Robert McLeman, a professor in the department of Geography and Environmental Studies.

“They’re bright people and they did a great job showing clear and obvious warming trends right across Canada,” says McLeman. “They dove in and figured out how to get the data, how to process the data — writing computer code to collect it all — and then model it.”

All three student researchers aspire to make climate change data more accessible to the public.

“We need to talk about climate change in our personal lives,” says Bird. “We need to say that this is a problem.”

Niyungeko and Bhavsar continue to work on their master’s degrees at ³Ô¹ÏÍø. Bird has completed an undergraduate degree and will head to Dalhousie University in Halifax to start master’s studies in physics and atmospheric science.

“If Canadians want to get serious about climate change, now’s the time to connect with each other, especially youth,” says Niyungeko. “I believe there is hope.”

Changes in Average Temperature on Canada Day (1949-2024)

• Regina: 3.5
• Winnipeg: 3.3
• Edmonton: 3.3
• Halifax: 3.1
• Whitehorse: 2.0
• Victoria: 1.7
• Charlottetown: 1.5
• Iqaluit: 1.5
• Yellowknife: 1.4
• Toronto: 1.4
• Ottawa: 1.4
• St. John’s: 1.2
• Quebec City: 1.2
• Fredericton: 0.9

Average linear increase in mean temperature on July 1 from 1949-2024 measured in degrees Celsius. Changes in average temperature is relative to start date (1949). Sourced from Environment and Climate Change Canada.